Right on Script

The NHLP Yearbook just continues to nail the NHLP Playoffs. The  second round is unfolding, as the first, almost exactly how the Yearbook predicted it would go. The CTR went 10-2 in the first round of the playoffs with only GM Marcel unable to win as expected. “You do this as long as the CTR has done it, it gets predictable” said Muddy Capone about the lack of upsets. “Guys can ignore reality, but the CTR just calls the series as they should unfold based on the factors in play.” What are those factors?  “It isn’t rocket science” Capone said with a chuckle. Capone went on to explain the process. Guys do what guys do. That is the first premise. So one player who has scored a point a game all season long, should get a point a game in the playoffs. The home teams are the top seeds, and better finishing NHL teams. Higher seeded teams play less playoff games then two middle seeds. So this season, Carolina versus Ottawa, number one in the Eastern Conference versus the team that just barely made the wild card. That series should go about on average 5 or 6 games, so the CTR scores it as 5.5 man games if you have a player in that series (5.5 x PPG). The two and three seeded teams like Montreal and Tampa Bay, they should play 6.5, 6 or 7 games. So if you have a point a game player from Tampa and one from Carolina, they aren’t the same in the playoffs, for the Tampa Player is likely to get more games in the first round. The more players you have from one team, the more likely they hit the CTR total. One player can have a bad round, but two players, their totals should be closer to the actual number. Where the upsets occur, aren’t always when someone has a high scoring series. It is just as much about when a team has a shorter then expected series, or a longer one, and guys just don’t hit their number. If you look how the NY Islanders (Ryan) overcame a 39-33 predicted first round to win, they didn’t score more then expected. Draisaitl was expected to get 10, he got 10. RNH 5. He got 5. The Islanders got 32, all players hit their numbers. For Marcel’s Habs, his four Montreal players played 7 games, CTR had them at 6.5. Those players just needed 21 points between them to stay on target. They hit 12. Then you add in Gostisbehere, never played 5.5 games, got 4 games and zero points. So it wasn’t Ryan outscored his number, Marcel just didn’t hit near his. In the other first round CTR miss, Toronto (Chad) was a 36-30 underdog. Chad’s top three players, Eichel, Dahlin and Carlson were to score 17. They scored 18. The team was to hit 30. They hit 30. Nothing special. Just guys hit their numbers. Marcel’s Panthers, they didn’t. Kucherov, Nelson and Lehkonen where to hit 19, they hit 11. Florida was to reach 36 and got 25. Neither of Marcel’s teams upset were done so because the other team had huge rounds. They did not. They scored on pace but Marcel’s guys, for whatever reasons under performed. All other 10 NHLP winners, just did as expected.

Vancouver As Predicted

GM Joel just keeps getting it done. The CTR #3-1-1 is laying down exactly the playoffs the CTR predicted for them. The #3 overall team, but #1 in the West Conference and #1 in the West Division is easily expected to win round two. The Canucks are a massive 15 point favorites and are up 14-12 almost halfway through the round. For GM Scottie he is hanging tough and is looking to top his expected 22. If Stone isn’t hurt, Scottie’s Blues could hope he has a massive series, and outside of that can’t get away from Joel. Joel’s top players have yet to point this round with Thompson, Dahlin, Norris and Norris likely to reach about 19 between them. They have zero and Vancouver is still winning 14-12.  How?  Well his other players should hit 18, almost enough by themselves to beat St. Louis. They have 14. Svechnikov and Hall, where suppose to end with 8. They ended with 8. There isn’t any surprises, just guys doing what the CTR expects them to do. Calgary (Jr) awaits the winner here with Calgary (#9-3-1) exactly where the CTR expected them to be. Winners of the Pacific, but 3^rd in the West Conference. Behind who?  Winner of Vancouver or St. Louis. This is a great opportunity for GM Joel. He needs Buffalo and Minny moving on. GM Jr is hoping Anaheim comes back. Those combinations likely decide what team goes to the Cup Finals.

Pittsburgh As Predicted

The East Conference is coming out exactly how the CTR said it all would unfold. GM Chad is looking like a great pick for a 6^th Championship. Chad’s Pens are up 16-13 in a flip a coin series. How is Chad getting it done?  Nothing special. Just on pace, as is GM Jr in Memphis, on pace to hit their CTR numbers. For Chad his Pens are the CTR #5-2-2. Fifth best in the NHLP, second best in both the East Conference and East Division. Who's top?  Jr’s Machine of course. Memphis was the CTR #1-1-1. Best NHLP team, should win the East Division and East Conference. But if you go back and read this division is anyone’s. Memphis was in a tie-breaker series in round one and Pittsburgh and Quebec (Matt) where to battle. They did, 27-27. So whoever did come out of the East Division, likely Jr or Chad, would roll over the Atlantic Winners, Likely Scott or Marcel (which turned to Ryan). Chad has a great shot at Cup 6 and with either two Habs or two Sabres next round along with Stankoven. Chad is assured someone in the NHLP Championship if he gets there.

Florida Opens Central Conference – Not as Predicted

Two out of three ain’t bad. Once Florida (Marcel) got eliminated in their round one upset, the next highest numbers found themselves ready to step in. San Fran (Scott) the CTR #4-2-1, the fourth best overall team and expected to win the South Division and was only second best in the Central Conference to Florida now has the door open. Third best in the Conference was New Orleans (Shawn) who weren’t expected to get out of the Division with Florida. Once they were no longer there, the Wolverines are up 14-5 over Toronto (Chad) who dispatched Marcel’s Panthers. The Wolverines are looking strong but Toronto likely comes back as this is a basic coin flip.  For the Titan they are losing 7-2. Massive 8-point favorites being down early likely isn’t any trouble. For GM Andrew, his three Carolina players look strong, but another sweep has left their second round over seemingly before it has even started. The Titan have minimum 12-man games left, at 0.7 PPG is 8.4 points. That would only give the Titan 10-11 points, of their predicted 20, a number that would potentially cause an upset here. The four remaining San Fran players had 25 points in 25 man games in round one and even with the slow out of the gate second round start are at 0.79 PPG between them, about 9-10 more points if they play the minimum and not extend the series beyond 5 games. So on paper, GM Scott doesn’t have to score at a phenomenal pace, they just have to do statistically what is expected. Right now, GM’s Shawn and Scott are most likely to play next round, but Chad and Andrew aren’t out just yet.